import pandas as pd
import plotly.express as pt
import numpy as np

Markov Behavior of Volatility Index (VIX)

Pranav Ahluwalia | Math 7241

Introduction

The volatility index (VIX) measures the expectation of market volatility based on S&P 500 options. This paper will test the hypothesis as to whether the volatility index follows the markov property, where the value of the time series at $T(n + 1)$ is dependent only upon the value at $T(n)$.

Data and Observation

VIX time series data from January 1990 to November 2021 was procured from the chicago board of exchange website https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/vix_historical_data/.

VIX = pd.read_csv("VIX_history.csv")

vix_time_series = pt.line(VIX, x = "DATE", y = "CLOSE",title = "VIX January 1990 - November 2021")
vix_time_series.show()